Als seek return to win column in clash with Tiger-Cats

Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Alouettes continue to compete without the services of quarterback Anthony Calvillo as the team challenges the Hamilton Tiger-Cats this weekend at Ivor Wynne Stadium.

Calvillo, who suffered a chest injury several weeks ago and sat out last week's loss to British Columbia, says he is on the mend and feels better, but the coaching staff has decided that sitting the superstar signal-caller would be the in best interest of everyone involved, especially with the second half of the season being so critical.

With Calvillo taking a seat again the Als are set to go with a backup, but instead of letting Chris Leak handle the action it will be Adrian McPherson who himself is fresh off the injured list after getting cleared to play following a torn MCL suffered during training camp.

McPherson had some solid efforts for Montreal late last season and finished 2009 with six touchdown passes and a completion percentage of 68.1. More importantly, as long as he is not tentative in the pocket and slowed too much by a knee brace, his mobility at the position is more than the team is used to with Calvillo. McPherson gained 351 yards on the ground, averaging close to six yards per attempt a year ago and that's something the Tiger-Cats have to plan for, even if the Montreal coaches want to limit how many times McPherson puts himself in harm's way.

Last week the Als hosted British Columbia, one of the weakest clubs in the league with just a single win at the time, but it just so happened that the Lions picked that week to put together a strong effort on both sides of the ball to come away with the overwhelming 38-17 victory at Montreal. Leak started at quarterback for the Als, hitting 15-of-27 passes for 135 yards, but he was sacked three times and intercepted twice, prompting the team to insert Ricky Santos.

Santos, a former Walter Payton Award winner, stepped in and converted 10-of-12 passes for 93 yards and a pair of majors, but by then the help was too little, too late for a Montreal squad that lost for the second time in the last three outings and is just hanging on to first place in the Eastern Division over both Hamilton and Toronto which enter this week with identical records at 5-4.

As for those Tiger-Cats, winners of three of their four home games this season and a solid 5-2 within the division, they managed to take care of the Toronto Argonauts last week by a final of 28-13 at home, even though the visitors held them to a paltry 34 yards rushing on 14 attempts. While the run game was stalling, Hamilton turned to Kevin Glenn to get them through and he didn't disappoint as he hit on 27-of-33 passes for 313 yards and a score, shaking off an interception and a sack along the way.

Defense was a mixed bag for Hamilton as the group allowed Cleo Lemon to light up the airwaves for 350 yards, but at the same time the Tiger-Cats held the opposing gunslinger without a major, sacked him three times and also picked off a trio of passes.

Aside from making interceptions, Hamilton's pass defense is one of the weakest in the league at the moment, allowing opponents to complete 65.8 percent of their attempts, a mark that is second-to-last behind only Toronto (70 percent) which has had trouble stopping everyone this year. Were it not for the three INTs last week by Hamilton, the group would be even further off the pace in the league given that they are bringing up the rear in that department with a mere seven interceptions through nine games. Nevertheless, Hamilton is still third in the league at the moment in terms of turnover margin with a plus four.

Ahead of the Tiger-Cats in the turnover department is Montreal which is a plus eight, mainly because Calvillo has been so careful with his throws this season and has but three picks in 288 attempts. Unfortunately for the Als, they'll have to wait at least one more week to get Calvillo's magic arm back in the lineup.

The loss of Calvillo against BC shouldn't have brought down the Als, but maybe the Lions saw the opportunity to score a huge victory and took advantage of the situation. Even though McPherson is coming off the injured list and is somewhat inexperienced, at this juncture he gives the Alouettes their best chance at winning, despite what Santos was able to accomplish in mop-up duty last week. Unfortunately for the signal-callers available for the Als this weekend, not one of them has yet to even attempt a pass against Hamilton and that can't be a good omen.

Montreal's lack of experience at the QB spot against Hamilton might also mean the Tiger-Cats won't be ready for what the Als throw at them this time around. It should also give Avon Cobourne reason to think he might gets his hands on the ball more for Montreal as well, after gaining just 57 yards on 13 attempts last week. One of the most dominant runners in the CFL a year ago, Cobourne is currently seventh in the league with just 460 yards and three TDs, averaging less than five yards per attempt.

With respect to the all-time series between these two clubs, Montreal owns an 84-74-7 in the regular season dating back to 1950. The Alouettes have taken five in a row against Hamilton and 13 of the last 14 encounters, including a 37-14 romp in Montreal back in July.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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