Line of Scrimmage: Draft '07 - What Will Oakland Do?

Football Betting Lines

04/02/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We all want choices in life, but there can be no denying that having a multitude of options can be both a blessing and a curse.

Too many options can lead us to overanalyze, and the more choices we have, the greater the opportunity exists for others to second-guess our thinking.

Less than a month from the 2007 NFL Draft, the Oakland Raiders find themselves in just such a quandary. The Silver and Black have four viable options in regard to their No. 1 overall pick, all alluring in their own way and each one potentially serving as a crucial misstep for the struggling franchise.

The Raiders can draft one of three talented players - LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, Notre Dame signal-caller Brady Quinn, or Georgia Tech wideout Calvin Johnson - or trade down and get more value for the pick.

Anyone that watched Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks plod their way through the 2006 season knows that the Raiders need a quarterback in a big way. The 6- foot-6, 263-pound Russell has an arm and skill set of mythical proportions. The smaller and less-physically-gifted Quinn is nonetheless perceived to be more polished and ready to lead an NFL offense, which has to be quite a valued little resume' item for a team that has won a grand total of 15 games in the past four years.

Johnson would be the out-of-the-box pick on a team that is quarterback-starved and already has two very good wideouts in Randy Moss and Jerry Porter, but the 6-foot-4, 237-pounder with sprinter's speed is a physical freak who many scouting services rate as the top overall player in the draft.

Trading down to someone desperate for the services of one of the three players above would be another approach, though let's face it: the notion of Al Davis forgoing the "big splash" and letting a competing team get its hands on Russell, Quinn, or Johnson seems pretty much unthinkable. That said, the fact that Davis passed up Matt Leinart to make the prudent move and select Texas safety Michael Huff last year is perhaps evidence that Davis is rethinking his long-favored circus-manager approach.

No matter which path they choose to take, one thing is certain: for the first time in some time, the Raiders have the NFL world's undivided attention.

Below we take a brief look at the draft day needs and probable strategies of each of the AFC's 16 teams (NFC capsules to appear on Wednesday, April 4th):

AFC EAST

Buffalo (7-9)

First Pick: No. 12

Number of Selections: 8 (1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7)

Summary: The first day of the 2007 Draft will be extremely important for a Bills team that cut ties with the likes of running back Willis McGahee, linebackers Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker, and cornerback Nate Clements during the offseason. At least one of those holes will probably filled prior to the draft, with a possible trade for San Diego backup running back Michael Turner being speculated about at present. Buffalo sought to bolster the offensive line during the free agency period, but since it ended up with serviceable guard Derrick Dockery and a couple of second-tier talents, some help will be required via the draft. The Bills need a reliable complement to No. 1 wideout Lee Evans, but with so many pressing needs, might be unable to address that department on the first day.

Miami (6-10)

First Pick: No. 9

Number of Selections: 8 (1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7)

Summary: The million-dollar question for the Dolphins involves the quarterback position. Joey Harrington was released, Daunte Culpepper cannot realistically be viewed as a reliable option, and Dan Marino does not appear ready to come out of retirement. If there is a year for rookie head coach Cam Cameron to select a quarterback, this is the one, though expecting Notre Dame's Brady Quinn to be available at No. 9 is probably wishful thinking. The Fins might have to trade up in order to get their signal-caller of the future. There are other major needs, most notably along an offensive line that saw five players either released or allowed to walk via free agency during the offseason. After wideout/return man Wes Welker, tight end Randy McMichael, and running backs Sammy Morris and Travis Minor all defected, some skill position vacancies need to be filled as well. Defense will probably be less of a priority, which is dangerous given the fact that the unit's three most recognizable players - end Jason Taylor and linebackers Zach Thomas and Joey Porter - are all on the wrong side of 30.

New England (12-4)

First Pick: No. 24

Number of Selections: 10 (1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7)

Summary: The Patriots have endured perpetual health problems in the secondary, particularly at safety, where Rodney Harrison has missed most of the last two years due to injury. If New England doesn't target secondary help with one of its two first-round picks, it will be a surprise. At linebacker, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin and free agent pickup Adalius Thomas will all be in their 30s when the season starts, so some potential successors at that position are in order. New England was active in acquiring skill position players in the offseason (wideouts Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker, Kelley Washington, running back Sammy Morris and tight end Kyle Brady), but after releasing Corey Dillon, might look to add another young running back in the event that Laurence Maroney falls victim to injury.

N.Y. Jets (10-6)

First Pick: No. 25

Number of Selections: 6 (1, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6)

Summary: The Jets could use some assistance in the secondary, where safety Kerry Rhodes is the only player that warrants special notation in the opposing scouting report. New York added a wealth of players to the front seven via free agency, though the fact that a first-rate, pass-rushing outside linebacker was not among that crop is evidence that that spot will be addressed via the draft. On offense, a third receiver to complement Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery must be located, and a second tight end to take some pressure off of Chris Baker would be handy as well. The young offensive line played reasonably well last year, but some depth in that area would be helpful.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore (13-3)

First Pick: No. 29

Number of Selections: 8 (1, 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6)

Summary: The Ravens filled their most pressing offseason need by trading for running back Willis McGahee on March 8th, but following the defections of right tackle Tony Pashos (Jaguars), guard Edwin Mulitalo (released) and fullback Ovie Mughelli (Falcons), finding some people to block for McGahee will be a priority. Perennial Pro Bowl tackle Jonathan Ogden is talking retirement, so help at that spot is of utmost importance. Baltimore will probably add a quarterback to grace the depth chart behind 34-year-old Steve McNair and contractual short-timer Kyle Boller, but probably not until the second day. At linebacker, Baltimore lost its most dynamic player, Adalius Thomas, to free agency, and soon-to-be-32-year-old Ray Lewis has begun to show his age in the middle. Elsewhere on defense, cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle took turns serving as pariahs in Charm City last year, and a player to push one or both could be helpful.

Cincinnati (8-8)

First Pick: No. 18

Number of Selections: 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7)

Summary: Cincinnati had its problems defensively last season, then lost reliable players like linebacker Brian Simmons (released) and safety Kevin Kaesviharn (free agent to Saints) in the offseason. The Bengals need to get younger and find a playmaker or two in the secondary, and could use a sturdy run-stopping type at linebacker. The offense lost Kelley Washington to free agency and has a potential suspension for fellow wideout Chris Henry hanging over its head, so a new receiver could join the mix. But Cincinnati, a team that received a total of 35 catches and two touchdowns from its tight ends last year, could add a different offensive dimension by selecting a player like Miami-Florida's Greg Olsen at No. 18, perhaps mitigating the effect of the potential absence of Henry.

Cleveland (4-12)

First Pick: No. 3

Number of Selections: 7 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)

Summary: Like the Dolphins, the Browns are a team with a draft status that will be impacted by what it chooses to do at the quarterback position in the coming weeks. Conventional wisdom suggests that Cleveland will add a veteran QB such as Trent Green prior to the draft, given the fact that head coach Romeo Crennel and general manager Phil Savage can't afford to wait around for a rookie QB to find his footing in 2007. If they sign a veteran QB, the Browns would be foolish not to select Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson with the third overall selection. At least one ready-to-play offensive lineman will also be a major need on a team that allowed 53 sacks last year. Defensively, the Browns will be without cornerback Daylon McCutcheon (released) and safety Brian Russell (free agent, Seahawks) next season, and will target secondary help. The pass rush also needs some help after generating just 28 sacks a year ago.

Pittsburgh (8-8)

First Pick: No. 15

Number of Selections: 9 (1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7)

Summary: Despite expectations that he would introduce his 4-3, Tampa-2 defense in Pittsburgh, new head coach Mike Tomlin appears set to keep Dick LeBeau's 3-4 zone-blitz scheme, at least for now. Still, you can expect the Steelers to target a pass rusher with the ability to play either defensive end or outside linebacker (especially following the release of Joey Porter) with one of its first two picks. Secondary help in the form of a cornerback or a versatile safety are other essential requirements in the Steel City. The offensive priorities are across the line, where longtime center Jeff Hartings retired and fellow trench staple Alan Faneca is in the final year of his contract. The Steelers are a little thin at receiver behind Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, but that spot looks like more of a second-day priority.

AFC SOUTH

Houston (6-10)

First Pick: No. 10

Number of Selections: 6 (1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)

Summary: Since Houston's braintrust of head coach Gary Kubiak and general manager Rick Smith focused much of their attention on defense last season, tabbing defensive end Mario Williams and linebacker DeMeco Ryans in the first two rounds, offense should be the greater priority this season. The Texans seem to have perpetual need for offensive line help, and after releasing Eric Moulds, will require someone to complement Andre Johnson at receiver. On defense, Houston was bottom-half of the league against the pass, and could use a bona fide playmaker at one or both of the safety slots. The Texans were inconsistent against the run last year, but adding depth on the defensive line and/or at linebacker figures to be a second-day concern.

Indianapolis (12-4)

First Pick: No. 32

Number of Selections: 8 (1, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7)

Summary: The Colts lost five somewhat recognizable players in running back Dominic Rhodes, wide receiver Brandon Stokley, linebacker Cato June, defensive tackle Montae Reagor and cornerback Nick Harper, but June is really the only player that can't be replaced easily. Indy figures to take the best front- seven player available at No. 32, and effectiveness against the run will be a major pre-requisite. With running back Joseph Addai and wideouts Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne firmly entrenched as starters, the Colts can target diamond-in-the-rough types to come in and fill backup roles at those positions. It will not be a shock if Indy uses a middle-round pick on a quarterback to push Jim Sorgi and/or recent acquisition John Navarre in the backup chair behind Peyton Manning.

Jacksonville (8-8)

First Pick: No. 17

Number of Selections: 9 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7)

Summary: The Jaguars were done in last season largely due to injury problems on defense, so enhancing their base of talent on that side of the football will likely be the franchise's top draft-day goal. High-priced defensive end Reggie Hayward has given the Jags a total of eight sacks in his two years in Jacksonville (he missed last season with a torn Achilles), so finding someone to push him figures to be a priority. Middle linebacker Mike Peterson and strong safety Donovin Darius are both on the wrong side of 30 and sustained season-ending injuries in 2006, so their respective successors could be a part of this year's draft crop as well. On offense, Jacksonville could use at least two of its six second-day picks on linemen. The Jags appear flush with backs and receivers at this stage, and are probably a year away from requiring a change to the depth chart at quarterback.

Tennessee (8-8)

First Pick: No. 19

Number of Selections: 10 (1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7)

Summary: The Titans' needs could change drastically between now and draft day, depending on what happens at two important positions. After losing Travis Henry to free agency, Tennessee is in need of a running back, and is reportedly considering both unrestricted free agent Corey Dillon and restricted free agent Michael Turner. Turner would cost the Titans first- and third-round picks, a price that would be exceedingly high for a career backup. If the Titans strike out on both players, a running back could be on the team's list of needs. Meanwhile, the organization has a major decision to make in regard to troubled cornerback Pacman Jones, who could miss up to half of 2007 due to suspension. It appears unlikely that Tennessee would cut Jones at this stage, though his track record makes it probable that the Titans will target secondary help on the first day. A quality pass rusher (Tennessee ranked near the bottom of the league with just 26 sacks in 2006) and reliable wideout (top pass-catchers Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade escaped via free agency) should also appear at or near the top of the team's wish list.

AFC WEST

Denver (9-7)

First Pick: No. 21

Number of Selections: 7 (1, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, 7)

Summary: The Broncos are likely to be in the market for linebacker help, since middle man Al Wilson is being shopped in a trade and is set to be released if he is not dealt. After releasing the disappointing Courtney Brown, some assistance at defensive end is also required. The Broncos look pretty well set at the skill positions, but some injuries and the dealing of right tackle George Foster to the Lions could lead to some first-day draft movement along the offensive line.

Kansas City (9-7)

First Pick: No. 23

Number of Selections: 6 (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7)

Summary: Though defensive-minded head coach Herm Edwards would probably rather shore up his area of expertise, there is no disputing that Kansas City has more significant needs on offense. The Chiefs have long lacked a first-rate No. 1 receiver, and could very well seek to change that fact in the first round. If LSU's Dwayne Bowe or USC's Dwayne Jarrett are available, Kansas City should pounce. Protection for likely QB starter Damon Huard and another blocker or two for Larry Johnson would also be a great credit to the offense. Defensively, a team that posted just 15 interceptions and 32 sacks a year ago needs playmakers both in the secondary and coming off the edge.

Oakland (2-14)

First Pick: No. 1

Number of Selections: 10 (1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7)

Summary: Draftniks everywhere are sitting on pins and needles waiting to see what the Raiders will do with the No. 1 pick. Conventional wisdom says that offensively-challenged Oakland will select strong-armed LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, though there are schools of thought suggesting that the Silver and Black should draft Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn, Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson, or trade down in order to further fortify a thin roster. Whatever happens at No. 1, the Raiders will not have addressed their only need by any stretch. Oakland needs at least two impact offensive linemen, and at least one who can join the mix to start at tackle. A pass-catching tight end would serve new head coach Lane Kiffin's offense quite well also. Defense is perceived to be among the team's strengths, but depth is an issue across the board on that side of the ball and the face of the defense, tackle Warren Sapp, will turn 35 before the 2007 season ends.

San Diego (14-2)

First Pick: No. 30

Number of Selections: 8 (1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 7)

Summary: The Chargers could end up with as many as six first-day picks, as the team would add a first- and third-rounder if another club signs away restricted free agent running back Michael Turner. The possibility of six more ready-to-play members heading to a team that was 14-2 last year is a scary thought indeed. Whether Turner stays or goes, the Chargers' top priority will be to bolster a defense that lost the likes of inside linebacker Donnie Edwards and safety Terrence Kiel in the offseason. Secondary helps seems to be a perpetual need for this franchise, so one or two of the team's first-day picks could be used to address this area. On offense, the Bolts might have to find a replacement for the valuable Turner, and could use a polished receiver to replace departed veteran Keenan McCardell.